Orange County Real Estate Sales Are DOWN!
Home sales volume fell 13 percent this summer in inland South Orange County vs. one year ago — The decline primarily affected the cities of Laguna Hills, Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita and San Juan Capistrano. Sales volume is down but prices are forecast to continue increasing into 2019 because the housing supply is so constrained that we are experiencing price increases for buyers who can still afford to buy in the county. The affordability index in Orange County actually improved slightly to 21% from 20% last summer because of minor wage increases. Now the median price home in Orange County is up requiring a family income of $177,050 to support an average monthly mortgage payment of $4,430.
Homes are taking longer to sell and most sellers set the asking prices too high. Overall sales prices are still making the third quarter the slowest-selling quarter in four years for Orange County’s housing market. The sales volume slow down is mainly due to buyers walking away from high prices and expensive mortgages.
Time Period Analysed – 2018’s summer quarter vs. the July-to-September period a year earlier.
CoreLogic found these 14 trends in eight ZIP codes covered by the Orange County Register’s Saddleback News Weekly …
Home sales in this period totaled 1,479 vs. 1,704 a year ago, a decline of 13.2 percent.
2. Who’s up:
Prices increased in three of the 8 ZIPs.
$734,000 median selling price, up 3.4 percent. Orange County sales totaled 9,160 homes, existing and new, vs. 10,350 a year ago, a decline of 11.5 percent. Prices rose in 50 out of 83 Orange County ZIPs and sales were up in 21 out of 83 ZIPs.
Here is how prices and sales moved at the community level …
4. Mission Viejo 92691:
$700,000 median, down 0.7 percent leading to a price rank of 47th of 83. Sales of 171 vs. 212 a year ago means a decline of 19.3 percent.
5. Mission Viejo 92692:
$750,000 median, flat in the period leading to a price rank of 36 of 83. Sales of 212 vs. 215 a year ago, a decline of 1.4 percent.
6. Lake Forest 92630:
$735,000 median, down 1.7 percent leading to a price rank of 39 of 83. Sales of 258 vs. 345 a year ago, a decline of 25.2 percent.
7. Foothill Ranch 92610:
$778,000 median, up 9.3 percent leading to a price rank of 31 of 83. Sales of 44 vs. 45 a year ago, a decline of 2.2 percent.
8. Rancho Santa Margarita 92688:
$575,000 median, down 7.3 percent leading to a price rank of 67 of 83. Sales of 164 vs. 250 a year ago, a decline of 34.4 percent.
9. Trabuco/Coto 92679:
$1,030,000 median, up 22.8 percent leading to a price rank of 12 of 83. Sales of 147 vs. 178 a year ago, a decline of 17.4 percent.
10. Ladera Ranch/Rancho Mission Viejo 92694:
$730,000 median, up 8.8 percent leading to a price rank of 41 of 83. Sales of 330 vs. 309 a year ago, a gain of 6.8 percent.
11. San Juan Capistrano 92675:
$816,000 median, down 18.7 percent leading to a price rank of 29 of 83. Sales of 153 vs. 150 a year ago, a gain of 2.0 percent.
12. Single-family-home resales:
5,618 Orange County sales vs. 6,284 a year ago, a decline of 10.6 percent in the period. Median: $785,500 — a rise of 3.4 percent in the period.
13. Condo resales:
2,429 sales vs. 2,802 a year ago, a decline of 13.3 percent in 12 months. Median: $513,000 — a rise of 4.7 percent in a year.
14. New homes:
Builders sold 1,113 residences vs. 1,263 a year ago, a decline of 11.9 percent in 12 months. Median: $985,000 — a rise of 11.6 percent in a year.
Chapman University forecasts a 5.6% price increase for OC in 2018.
Our guidance advises a free consultation with one of our experts to determine the appropriate selling price for your home 3 to 6 months in advance of putting your home on the market.